‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the authorities maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and officials say cylinders are being reallocated to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by rumors. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.