How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.