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Only 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.