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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test side being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Sign up to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, coming around the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.